Crisis, virus - business: who the mess works for
Coronavirus and the looming financial crisis are projected by WOT and financiers to cost the world economy trillions of dollars and millions of jobs.
However, any crisis is a two-sided medal, and while some are waiting for state payments and hoping to maintain their position, others take full advantage of the opportunities that fear, panic and uncertainty provide. What are these opportunities and who has become the main beneficiary of instability?
Despite the fact that the situation is heating up in the international arena, states are desperate to stop epidemic and mitigate the possible effects of the crisis by all available means. This, of course, is true, and, in fact, the state needs it to solve crises and problems that smaller entities cannot solve. But the protracted struggle costs citizens dearly, and it’s not just about money:
- In China people who collect and transmit information about coronavirus are missing. In addition, did not allow HRW to report to Hong Kong;
- In Malaysia, for violation of the decrees on the restriction of movement , citizens are simply sent to prison ;
- In Egypt, a chemical army took to the streets, and in Turkey Erdogan personally assured of the citizens in a voice message that the situation was under control. Immediately after the arrest of journalists spreading information about the virus.
- In Israel, special services received the command to monitor citizens through mobile communication devices.
And all of this could be blamed on the “wild east”, which is a delicate matter, but here the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban became virtually the sole ruler “until the end of the epidemic” ignoring decisions Parliament. HRW is worried that Poland is touchingly looking at this dictatorship on the outskirts of an oasis of democracy, thinking about something similar.
From equally important news about the violation of human rights and freedoms: [19459009 ]
The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry proposed to introduce tickets for visiting shops and pedestrian areas. Well, that is, if earlier it was possible to go there freely, now only by ticket, which will be issued in the application.
Only slogans like "Give two trips to the store and one walk a day" are missing.
And in Chile, the state attributed to itself the right to decide who recovered and who did not, and based on this, determine who is “worthy” of the right to earn a living and who is not. People discharged from the hospital will be given special certificates so that they can return to work. WHO re-infection warnings do not bother officials too much. It seems that an effective vaccine against coronavirus was invented in Chile - this is a seal on a certificate, once they put immunity for life.
The news of fines and court cases for publishing information about the virus or lack of medicines, perhaps, you will not surprise the residents of the Russian Federation. Well, if you were lucky enough to drop into the territory of Ukraine recently, then instead of observing at the border, you will be kindly invited to install “Diyu”, through which you need to send a selfie from the place of self-isolation at the very first request. Selfies, of course, with geo-tagging, and the application will swear if you are not at the specified address, or maybe you can even press the police.
The trend is not alarming? Well, that’s okay, these geeks, how many of them fasts in instances with morning selfies, no one thinks, but the fact that you are fined for being in the wrong place is already more interesting. And this is against the background of the fact that in the absence of the State of Emergency, the government has no right at all to restrict the freedom of movement of citizens.
It is not surprising that the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres expressed concern at the briefing in early April . regarding the observance of human rights in the world. The UN is concerned that emergency measures introduced by the government can often neither be seen nor challenged. And taking into account quarantine measures, you can’t even protest. Hello Orwell, put on your mask.
But the influence of the state, most likely, will not be limited to the legal and political sphere. Saxo Bank's chief economist, Steen Jacobsen , believes that cheap money will cost enterprises and the economy as a whole very expensive. Such support has already turned the market upside down, causing negative interest rates on loans and oil with a surcharge from the seller, and in the future it may result in the dependence of enterprises and pricing on the state.
Most likely, after the crisis, the state will own significant shares of companies, dictating its economic and strategic decisions. First of all, this applies to the airline industry, many of whose players are already on the verge of bankruptcy. As for pricing, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, for example, has already stated that it intends to control prices for a basket of essential goods, forcing sellers to warn in writing of any change in value.
And this is only direct control - legal and political. Now recall that in many countries of Europe and the United States on the verge of bankruptcy are dozens of large companies - air carriers, industrialists, transport workers and representatives of other industries that were hit by quarantine. And the state can buy up stakes in these companies. In some, at will, in some (to big to fail) - as necessary. In order to regulate prices in such cases, even coercion is not required - who needs the law if there is a controlling stake in your pocket?
This beautiful picture will also be supplemented with new taxes, an increase in existing ones, an increase in public debt and the ability of the state to devalue the currency without serious consequences.
Less international leverage - more freedom of action within a single country.
“One of the main slogans” is traders? And if a month ago on Black Thursday everyone was very poorly aware of what would happen to the market next, and they were just afraid to buy, now the situation has relatively stabilized. The funds that managed to sell rapidly cheapening securities received a large amount of undistributed funds, and with them, profitable assets almost for nothing.
So, according to Forbes on April 15:
- Boeing fell by 56% compared to the beginning of the year;
- United Airlines Holdings lost 66%;
- US Steel lost 40% of its value;
- Alcoa went down 66%;
- Basf fell 35%;
- Dow Chemical Company - 20%.
But these are large industrial and aviation companies - the "first tier", whose shares are classified as conservative investments with a small but stable profit. The loss of half the cost opens up a good buying position for large investment funds, as Both industry and the air sector are likely to show positive momentum immediately after quarantine has ended.
Moreover, if, for example, US Steel shares were bought on the collapse of March 23 at $ 5.45, then on April 28, the income would have been 28%: