Opinion: the price of bitcoin will never reach $ 100,000
Bitcoin rally in 2017 was remembered by many. And even now, in 2020 - it is still on hearing. And this is not surprising. After all, there is no tru-cryptan in this world who, secretly, would not cherish the thought of the coming of the tuzemun. Well, stealthily, flipping through the schedule and voluptuously glancing at the past long ago behind us, it becomes a little easier to wait for the weather by the sea.
Everything would be fine. Well, just knowing about this painful longing of the crypto community for endless X, golden Lambo and evergreen charts, they brazenly play on our feelings. Whatever the day is a new stuffing, in order to tickle the nerves of the “kryptons” frozen in a low start. And all in order for them to turn ahead of time, and, having charged deposits, as a result, they would become victims of the next shaking of money by uncompromising removal of stops or jewelry knocking down the price tag through the initiation of a whole pack of large liquidations.
Yes, yes. We will talk about the notorious “forecasts” of bitcoin prices, which eminent experts love to celebrate, thereby setting the mood vector of the rest of the community. And no, my introduction, this is by no means an accusation of these in cowardice or a dirty game. Everyone has the right to their opinion. And everyone also has the right to express this very opinion. Including through the media. However, as a reader and as part of the crypto community, I also have the right to express my thoughts on all these vangs. Just like giving them your subjective assessment.
I will explain. I do not throw stones at the gardens of those who at least somehow argue their point of view. Not just “because, halving,” but why, how, and who should he influence. Not just “because central banks are in a difficult situation”, but how exactly this situation should affect bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. Why money should flow into Bitcoin, and not go into decades-old gold or securities of ETF funds associated with it. I am against innuendo and hints of thinking. If you predict a cue ball for one hundred thousand dollars due to the QE carried out by central banks, then explain to people exactly how, in your opinion, this will lead to an increase in bitcoin. Even if you were not going to give any comments to the media on this issue, but it so happened that they expect such an answer from you - think it over. Causes and effects. At least some minimum information. It’s not so difficult to find even a little explanation for your forecast. After all, on the basis of something, you still do it.
So, for example, recently the CEO of Global Marko Investor, Raul Pal promised Bitcoin a capitalization of $ 10 trillion and a price tag of $ 1,000,000. Pal’s arguments were the crisis caused by the difficult economic situation in the world and the potential of BTC, expressed in the fact that Bitcoin is not just money, but also a proven cryptographic accounting system. The future of our entire exchange system.
How exactly does the economic situation in the world contribute to the growth of bitcoin? If it is a cryptography and an accounting system, then why are the advantages pouring on Bitcoin, and not, for example, on state cryptocurrencies, which are now actively developed in different parts of the world? Explain on what basis, in such a small market as a crypt, should such a capitalization form? Just because bitcoin is “the future of the exchange system”? I very much doubt that such a wording is a sufficient reason for millions of people, including large investors, to suddenly start pouring their money into the first cryptocurrency.
I agree. As a theory, this is of course interesting. But you just think about it yourself! Bitcoin worth a million dollars!
One of the fundamental roles of BTC today is speculation. Yes Yes. BTC is primarily a buy-sell asset, and only after that, a way to preserve value. In your opinion, how many people will buy dust from Satosh for thousands and tens of thousands of dollars, especially knowing that for BTC, a collapse of 90% is in the order of things? Spend twenty thousand dollars to turn into two hundred? I doubt that there will be many willing to make such an exchange. This in itself suggests that there is a certain psychological barrier, upon reaching which the purchase of BTC will cease to seem attractive to people. No matter how actively he grew up to this.
A simple example. Imagine that you are a happy owner of a free thousand dollars. And you want to invest them in bitcoin. The price of BTC, for example, is $ 100,000. Your investment will be equal to one hundredth of bitcoin. To increase your capital at least twice, you will have to patiently wait for a price tag of $ 200,000, which, however, may not happen at all.
Will you make such an investment, knowing that bitcoin is likely to go into correction and collapse to $ 10,000, thereby turning your thousand dollars into a hundred? Are you ready to wait for several years until the stars in the sky converge and you have a chance to go even to breakeven? And if you invested one hundred thousand dollars and it was a solid part of your capital?
All this leads to the fact that the level of BTC price growth is strongly limited by such a concept as “attractiveness”. However, not only her. Do not forget that in order for Bitcoin to grow, it must be bought. And it is here, on a par with “attractiveness”, that such phenomenon as “accessibility” becomes.
Agree, not everyone is able to make investments worth tens of thousands of dollars. Therefore, at a price close to $ 100,000 for 1 BTC and higher, the percentage of people willing to invest will decrease significantly. After all, they came from hundreds or thousands - just dust. And in the case of a dump, such investments will fall to cents. Well, if the supply significantly exceeds demand, then this is a direct road to a halt in growth and subsequent corrective sale. And the amounts at stake will be such that they will take profits and sell Bitcoin in large quantities. This will provoke a rapid drop in prices, which in itself will be a powerful blow to the spectacularly lying row of dominoes. Panic sell.
In order to mitigate such a fall, an injection of funds will be required. Quantitative easing, like the fact that some central banks are now being held to save markets. But who will give money to contain such a collapse for Bitcoin? And why, each of his corrections will have to affect people with such a severe crisis? If you think about it, then the weakest point in this concept is the too high price of BTC. It makes it less accessible to a wide range of people, kills demand and breaks its stability. In cases in which the cost of bitcoin could take its place in the range of 15,000 - 20,000 dollars, sudden large dumps would not bring as much global damage as with a price of one hundred thousand or a million. And the achievements of the psychological zone within which the purchase of BTC again begins to look attractive would have been much faster. They would start buying it at a time when the peak of sales has not yet been passed. Due to this, Bitcoin would soften itself and thus even achieve a kind of autonomy. Such, based on human greed, is a looping algorithm of building up and subsequent unloading.
Returning to forecasts, I would like to give another fresh example. ShapeShift CEO Eric Voorhees recently predicted an eighty percent chance that BTC would hit $ 50,000 in twelve months. The analyst referred to “Bitcoin’s tendency to take tops” and suggested analyzing those price forecasts that were already justified in the past.
Speaking of the predictions that came true, it’s not difficult to conclude that it was just luck. After all, there are many analysts and they all compete against each other. Probability theory is an interesting thing, and it does not exclude the possibility that someone “guesses” it all the same. Therefore, looking back at the forecasts that have justified themselves in the past, in this case, is clearly not enough. You will receive a mountain of conflicting, disparate data. Their analysis will not yield anything. No model. No algorithm.
Thus, the forecast by Eric Voorhees is a colorful example of how forecasts should not be made. I do not deny the right of this analyst to personal opinion and its expression, but I urge to be responsible for my words. Being a speaker who is positioned as a person with expertise in the matter he addresses, Eric Voorhees must understand that his words will set the tone for market sentiment. Among us there are many who in their opinions look not only at the schedule, but also at the fundamental in the form of news and expert opinions. It may also happen that for some, the words CEO ShapeShift will cost money. You make a forecast - explain.
If we talk about my own opinion, then I do not deny the possibility of Bitcoin reaching values close to $ 50,000. But there must be a very strong foundation for this. Or increased interest on the part of people, including much greater interest on the part of the part of society that is far from cryptocurrencies. Or, a more developed infrastructure should be built around BTC than there is at the moment. In other words, a trigger should appear which will begin to attract new money to this market.
Some mistakenly believe that a regularly printed USDT can perform such a function. But the truth is that Teaser is only increasing its capitalization, which means that its influence on bitcoin is episodic. Today, BTC can pump for a couple of thousand dollars, but then the volumes poured for this will necessarily be sold and withdrawn. The course will fall, and Teaser will receive new fiat dollars to secure its stablecoin. Do not forget that the volume of USDT poured into Bitcoin is not large enough to strongly affect the capitalization of BTC and provoke the community to mass purchases. And even if he could, then such a rise would not last long. The crypto community is a relatively small part of the entire population of the planet. Daredevils that will knock on this gate in the wake of hype will also be relatively few. In addition, do not forget about such criteria as “attractiveness” and “accessibility”. Especially now, amid the crisis and rising unemployment in the world. Bottom line: USDT is, of course, a printing press, but they cannot afford to organize a native.
I am saddened by the statements of people who are surprised that Bitcoin has still not returned to $ 20,000. In their opinion, BTC is simply obliged not only to do this, but also significantly exceed the price maximum mentioned above.
In fact, this is not so. Anyway - it used to be easier. And here's why:
- There were no stablecoins. Therefore, the profits were either displayed in fiat being measured with commissions, or fixed in BTC. Now you can go to USDT and forget about price spikes. Previously, many were engaged in the accumulation of Bitcoin. I do not argue, many used altcoins and took profits in them. However, this does not negate the fact that at the beginning of the price movement in bitcoin, money from viola began to flow into it. This smoothly brings us to the second thesis of this argument.
- Only a few years ago, it was possible to earn only on the growth of bitcoin. Exchanges offering users “short” positions were unimaginably small, or even not at all. Partially, but this brought some cohesion to the market. Everyone who wanted to make a profit set on growth and their main task was to get out on time. Now, the situation has changed. There was an opportunity to earn on reduction, which many use. This also includes margin trading, the closure and liquidation of positions in which the BTC price is shied from side to side. Oddly enough, but this model can also become a stick in the wheels of the bike on which you intend to indigenous. All this adds to the market something that was not there before. Namely, randomness.
- Various “trading offers” based on bitcoin also play their role. The simplest example is trading on a Binance futures account. In fact, this is earnings on forecasting the price of BTC, without physical (if I may say so) ownership of this very BTC. You bet USDT and earn it. I have nothing against Binance, but such trading is only minus the liquidity of Bitcoin itself. And there are many such products. And not only at Binance.
In my opinion, at the moment, bitcoin for one hundred thousand dollars and above is simply unrealistic.
Moreover, such a BTC is inconvenient for speculation (not attractive and less accessible to a wide range of users), and now it is this function that is the most common and in demand. And in order for at least something to change, the entire cryptocurrency industry has a long way to go. In fact, right now, even a hike of $ 20,000 should not be taken for granted.
I understand that I could break someone’s hopes with these words, but think about this. Have you ever thought that the previous global price high was an accident? Anomaly. Just going far beyond a non-standard value, which, however, does not reflect the true potential of BTC?
Pay attention to the schedule. Timeframe 1D. This scale and history is enough to clearly demonstrate the true potential for the development of the price of the first cryptocurrency.
As you can see, the price feels pretty good moving within the range indicated by the green lines. This is an ascending channel, and even during the period of cryptozyme, which has damaged many nerves, we nevertheless fit perfectly into the framework of this global upward trend. This is confirmed by the minima and maxima that work perfectly everywhere except for two anomalous zones.
Consider the $ 20,000 price hike. Growth was unexpected, strong. I would even say explosive. And he was anomalous. Yes Yes. That price movement goes far beyond the usual behavior of BTC, which is clearly visible on the schedule. There were many reasons for this. You will probably remember something of your own, but I’ll give only those that first came to mind:
- Situation with the SilkRoad marketplace. At that time, he still worked and in the darknet, the demand for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was serious. Do not forget about the hero of the occasion. I think that many of you have read articles that highlight the size of both the turnover of the site and the personal capital of its owner (Ross William Ulbricht).
- Media actively promoted cryptocurrencies. Even bitmatically non-cryptocurrency publications spoke about Bitcoin. It became interesting to people how it happened that an asset known only in narrow circles suddenly began to cost at first hundreds, and then thousands of dollars. It was a splash. Hype brought so many inexperienced cryptans to the market that the media even scolded them because they constantly fluctuated the price with their stuffing.
- Against the background of the foregoing, around the cryptocurrencies, the infrastructure began to actively develop. The market expanded and multiplied with diverse offers. Even mining began to actively develop into an industrial one.
Of course, these are not all reasons. But they certainly were part of that powerful movement that drove people crazy, pulled a lot of new money into the market, and as a result - brought Bitcoin into orbit. However, this cannot be regarded as standard indicators. A similar price is without a doubt, an error - which goes far beyond the normal, is an anomaly (everything above the upper green line on the chart). In other circumstances, the price maximum would be an amount close to $ 8500- $ 9000.
By analogy with the global maximum, a recent dump of up to $ 3,700 can also be considered anomalous (below the third green line). The fault is the COVID -19 pandemic and the resulting economic crisis.
The start of hype due to coronavirus occurred in the period “end of February – beginning of March”. It was in this time period that a steady decline in the value of BTC began. The graph shows that locally, the price went down the channel. Several times she even returned and fought back from the resistance. However, for the last time, at point “A”, the price decided not to return anymore. Panic Sell has begun.
Suspension of trade relations, closing of borders, business problems. Losses and life circumstances of people caused by coronavirus. Someone lost their jobs, someone must help relatives. Someone is not enough to pay debts or rent. And someone did, deliberately withdrew funds from Bitcoin, because they did not believe in its quality, like digital gold. Many different reasons and circumstances. But all of them, one way or another, provoked a BTC dump.
В остальном, если принять аномальные зоны за продиктованные форс-мажорами погрешности - движение биткоина достаточно плавное. Оценить его перспективы на ближайшее будущее становится не сложно.
Так, например, заветные $20.000 за 1 BTC наиболее реальными будут в феврале - марте 2021 года. Это при условии, что подобная цена будет казаться людям комфортной для взаимодействия.
Лично мое (не самое популярное) мнение. $20.000 долларов это оптимальная максимальная стоимость для BTC. По разным причинам (привлекательность и доступность) не многие решаться делать крупные инвестиции на данном ценовом уровне. В свою очередь это приведет к преобладанию предложения над спросом и спровоцирует начало глобальной коррекции.
Также, падение с такой “высоты”, не станет летальным для встраиваемой вокруг крипторынка инфраструктуры. Дамп со $100.000 вполне мог бы оказаться критическим попаданием для многих фондов или криптовалютных бизнесов. Потери же, от дампа с $20.000 большинство организаций способно предупредить и аккумулировать. К тому же, в этом случае, период при котором падающий BTC начнут откупать наступит быстрее. При дампе же со ста тысяч и выше, биткоин рискует падать долго, и потерять в процессе, доверие множества людей.
Движение биткоина плавное и последовательное. При переходе цены к значениям за пределами тех, что в границах зеленого диапазона - давление на цену будет увеличиваться и она будет стремиться вернуться в канал. Что мы собственно и видим на графике. В первом случае - BTC исчерпал привлекательность и доступность. А во втором - мир принял меры против нависшей угрозы. Всё это привело к успокоению людей и стабилизации рынков. Помимо этого, дамп до 3700, также стал причиной роста привлекательности биткоина. Позволил тому набраться сил и найти свое место даже в мире охваченном паникой из-за крупнейшего за последние сто лет кризиса.
По моему мнению, биткоин продолжит двигаться в пределах зеленого диапазона. Со временем, рано или поздно, ценовые минимумы в этом диапазоне также выйдут за пределы “доступности” и “привлекательности”, что обернется для криптовалютного рынка началом рецессии, а затем и планомерного спада.
Если упрощать, то ничего нового. Рынок будут ждать флэт, а потом и глобальная смена тренда. Настоящая криптозима.
Чтобы этого избежать, криптовалютам нужна развитая инфраструктура, которая сможет, что-то предложить не только своей целевой аудитории, но и всему остальному миру. Либо же, этот самый мир должен будет перевернуться с ног на голову и до неузнаваемости, модернизировать традиционную экономическую модель. Как вариант, можно рассматривать и принятие государствами биткоина в качестве резервной валюты или нового типа обеспечения.
В заключении хотелось бы еще раз сказать о том, что по моему личному мнению, зона в которой иссякнут доступность и привлекательность BTC как спекулятивного актива, находится в диапазоне между $16.000 и $20.000. Поэтому, разнообразные прогнозы о цене биткоина равной или выше ста тысяч долларов, это не более чем “сказки для дураков”.
Мнение автора может не совпадать с мнением редакции.