The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts a fall in GDP by 4-6% in 2020
The Central Bank of Russia has updated the data regarding expectations of economic development in the next couple of years. If back in January, before the epidemic began and economic life stopped, the Central Bank forecasts called the figures for GDP growth of 1.5–2% until the end in 2020, but now it is expected to decrease by 4–6%. The main reason for this development of events, the Central Bank calls a sharp drop in oil prices.
In 2021, a recovery of 2.8–4.8% is expected, which will slow down in 2022 and amount to about 1.5–3.5%.
In making this forecast, the bank set the average price for Urals oil at $ 27 per barrel in 2020 and its subsequent increase to $ 35 and $ 45 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, respectively.