This is important: three threats to bitcoin

    Опасности для биткоина
    Dangers for Bitcoin

    We often discuss the reasons due to which the adoption of Bitcoin will increase, and its rate can return to $ 20 000 and rise even more. But it is important to look not only at the prospect, but also to assess possible dangers. The cryptoblogger Sunny Decree called three of them.

    We analyzed his video, supplemented it with new information and assessed the reality of the danger to BTC. Will it be a blow to price, mining or the very network of the first cryptocurrency?



    Bitcoin futures

    To begin with, here is the video itself, which we will discuss today:

    [ 19459021]

    Sunny Decree about Bitcoin

    The first problem that Sunny Decree highlighted is Bitcoin futures. He draws parallels between the news that the trader and founder of his own hedge fund Paul Tudor Jones said he holds almost 2% of his funds in bitcoin. And the fact that after the news was disseminated by the media, there has been an increase in the activity of trading futures on the CME exchange.

    The blogger is sure that other major stock market players paid attention to this message and decided to dilute their investment portfolio with cryptocurrencies. But they do this not through buying bitcoin , but using futures, which are actually speculating on the price of bitcoin, and not buying the asset itself.

    Why is it bad? First of all, because the money of these krupnyky from Wall Street does not come in bitcoin . They just make money on volatility , and if we, like real cryptans, are going to invest our money and push bitcoin towards tuzemun, then they will get profit from this. Or they won’t receive it, depending on whether a particular trader is in a short or long position.

    The fact is that money in the futures market does not increase the capitalization of bitcoin.

    Secondly, the futures market does not help the adoption of bitcoin. For institutions, bitcoin is not a means of payment or accumulation, it is just a risky asset that can fire. It is worth noting, to be honest with yourself, that for many in the crypto community, bitcoin is also just a way to earn more dollars.

    But these people from the crypto community know such simple things as not your keys - not your bitcoins. They can use wallets and send transactions , thereby at least a little, but they help to increase the scope of use. And the Wall Street players have not been given this, they don’t even imagine how to manage the funds themselves and not keep them on the brokerage account. Over time, life will play a cruel joke with them, but until this point, do not expect them to install bitcoin wallets.

    And in the third place, it was CME futures, as we learned only in 2019, that were approved by the American authorities with the aim of piercing the Bitcoin bubble in December 2017. And they did it. And now, attention, the question is: can it be that the increase in activity in the regulated futures market will hinder the rise in the price of bitcoin in the spot? Indeed, many are guided by the position in which the grain is on CME and just now most of them have chosen shorts.




    Хешрейт биткоина
    Bitcoin hash

    As you know, on May 11, the third halving took place on the bitcoin network , and now the block reward is 6.25 BTC. As expected, this event led to a slight overload of the mempool and an increase in the average block production time to 12 minutes. Therefore, many are now experiencing inconvenience due to the long confirmation of transactions and curse at the growth of fees:

    Комиссии в сети биткоина
    Commissions on the Bitcoin network

    But the closest recalculation of complexity should solve this problem. But what we did not expect is that the miners will remain online. In his video, Sunny Decree points out that the hashrate after halving decreased by 30% from 136 to 95 EH / s. Here we will not agree with him, because the hash rate in this range fluctuated even before the halving, and as we see now the network capacity is several industries:

    Хешрейт биткоина
    Bitcoin hashrate [19459006 ]

    So it cannot be said that this is a drop in the hashrate, as was the case with the same Bitcoin Cash . Bitcoin miners withstood the blow of the halving, and we will repeat ourselves, but say that we did not expect anything like that at all.

    But the fact that the hashrate has slightly decreased or not, which side to look at is not a problem in itself. Sunny Decree asked a very correct question: what will happen to the network capacity if the price of bitcoin goes down? If the optimistic forecast for bitcoin with an output above $ 10,000 and the continuation of the uptrend does not work. The chances of him now are very high. But if not, and the price falls down, then the miners will definitely start to turn off and the hashrate will sag significantly.

    Please note that when the miners leave, they do not turn in their ASIC in metal, but simply turn them off until better times. Thus, we may find ourselves in a situation where we will have a lot of idle equipment at 30%, 40% and even 50% of the current hashrate. The threat is that someone can use them to attack the Bitcoin blockchain. This is a problem exclusively for a particular exchange or seller, who will be left without coins due to the cancellation of a transaction through a 51% attack. But its very fact discredits the Bitcoin network and prevents the attraction of new supporters, in the sense of users.


    Ноды биткоина
    Bitcoin nodes

    A problem that should really bother is the decrease in the number of bitcoin nodes, and thanks to Sunny Decree for paying attention to this. Over the past 90 days, their number has decreased by 20%:

    Количество нод в сети биткоина за 90 дней
    Number of nodes in the Bitcoin network over 90 days

    And if we look at the dynamics for 2 years, the drop is 17%:

    Количество нод в сети биткоина за 24 месяца
    Number of nodes in the bitcoin network in 24 months

    Recall that miners only they collect transactions into blocks, but the nodes are involved in their verification and confirmation. But if the miner receives a reward for the block and commission as a reward for work, then the owners of the nodes spend their Internet and computer resources voluntarily, without receiving any reward for this.

    Therefore, it is not surprising that they gradually decide to abandon support for the Bitcoin network due to various circumstances. For example, they are tired of storing 277 GB of blockchain on their hard drive, the size of which is constantly increasing:

    Размер блокчейна биткоина
    Bitcoin blockchain size

    And the problem it’s not that part of the old school skins the nodes, the trouble is that new people do not come in their place. While the current values ​​for the nodes are not critical. By the way, the most conscious adherents of Bitcoin, according to this map , live in the USA and Germany.

    Dangers for Bitcoin

    Today we discussed three potential threats to Bitcoin. Because cryptocurrency is not only freedom from banks, but also responsibility. After all, when they say that the owner of Bitcoin himself controls his money, this means that he himself ensures their safety. Never forget about it.

    Read also:

    Bullish fractal on the Bitcoin chart: when will the long-awaited native

    Bitcoin: three reasons for growth [ 19459013]

    Bitcoin grew by 140%: what's next

    See also  Opinion: the price of bitcoin will never reach $ 100,000

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